docs(accuracy): publish phase 4 benchmark evidence

.gitignore

@@ -29,8 +29,10 @@ build/
 !/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P3/**
 !/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/
 /artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/*
-!/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/reference-harness-v2/
+!/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/
-!/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/reference-harness-v2/**
+/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/*
+!/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/
+!/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/**
 !/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P2/
 !/artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P2/**
 /.cache/

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/acceptance-gates.json

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+{
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+  "critical_subgroup_policy": "Any required subgroup with insufficient support, missing metrics, a failed non-inferiority comparison or regression blocks promotion; averages cannot override it.",
+  "decision": "At least one mandatory Phase 4 gate failed; Phase 5 remains blocked.",
+  "gate_policy": "geointel-p4-evaluation-harness-v2",
+  "invalid_gate_states": {},
+  "local_gates": {
+    "all_declared_evaluator_families_exercised": {
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+        "change_detection",
+        "footprint_segmentation",
+        "geospatial_data_validation",
+        "object_detection",
+        "raster_classification",
+        "terrain_interpretation",
+        "vector_comparison"
+      ],
+      "observed": [
+        "change_detection",
+        "footprint_segmentation",
+        "geospatial_data_validation",
+        "object_detection",
+        "raster_classification",
+        "terrain_interpretation",
+        "vector_comparison"
+      ],
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "complete_raw_predictions_retained": {
+      "status": "pass",
+      "violating_samples": []
+    },
+    "implemented_capability_inventory": {
+      "capability_count": 15,
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "manifest_training_firewall_contract": {
+      "checks": {
+        "clean_train_allowed": true,
+        "non_train_role_blocked": true,
+        "protected_path_blocked": true,
+        "renamed_protected_lineage_blocked": true
+      },
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "normative_split_roles_and_leakage": {
+      "leakage_status": "pass",
+      "observed_roles": [
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+        "calibration",
+        "challenge",
+        "test",
+        "train",
+        "val"
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+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "protected_operating_point_contract": {
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+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "reference_implementation_baseline": {
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "stratified_metric_contract": {
+      "observed_overall_status": "not_evaluable",
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "undefined_metric_truth_table": {
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+      "status": "pass"
+    }
+  },
+  "local_harness_status": "pass",
+  "missing_gate_names": {
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+    "product": []
+  },
+  "numeric_model_release_targets": "not_frozen_without_reviewed_representative_incumbent_baseline",
+  "phase_decision": "blocked",
+  "product_benchmark_status": "fail",
+  "product_gates": {
+    "active_model_available_and_hash_verified": {
+      "configured_path": "/app/models/geointel-building-yolov8s-smallbld-minpx3-img640-ft30.pt",
+      "configured_sha256": "a9088b8491dfae36694b53e9e9406cb4e3511d334a5712fa34f75078a47759c1",
+      "reason": "Configured active model is not locally accessible.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "authoritative_reference_portfolio_available": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "executed_product_incumbent_baseline": {
+      "checked_artifacts": [],
+      "derived_gates": {
+        "authoritative_reference_portfolio_available": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "human_review_complete": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "protected_storage_isolation": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "representative_product_subgroup_support": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "split_independence": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        }
+      },
+      "expected_path": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/product-baseline-manifest.json",
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "human_review_complete": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "phase3_leakage_resolved": {
+      "observed": "attention",
+      "status": "fail"
+    },
+    "protected_storage_isolation": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "representative_product_subgroup_support": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "split_independence": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    }
+  },
+  "promotion_allowed": false,
+  "schema_version": 2,
+  "status": "fail",
+  "unexpected_gate_names": {
+    "local": [],
+    "product": []
+  }
+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/aoi-metrics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+{
+  "reason": "Synthetic single-case fixtures do not provide independent product AOI clusters. AOI micro/macro and cluster-bootstrap evidence requires the protected product corpus.",
+  "required_future_outputs": [
+    "per-AOI primary metrics",
+    "micro and macro aggregation",
+    "paired candidate-minus-incumbent deltas",
+    "cluster-bootstrap confidence intervals"
+  ],
+  "schema_version": 2,
+  "status": "not_evaluable"
+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/benchmark-manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_id": "geointel-p4-reference-harness-v2",
+  "claim_boundary": "Synthetic deterministic reference cases validate evaluator behavior, not production model accuracy.",
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+    "challenge_labels_available": false,
+    "production_model_inference_executed": false,
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+    "synthetic_reference_harness": true,
+    "test_used_for_selection": false,
+    "threshold_source": "pre_registered_configuration_only"
+  },
+  "input_manifest": {
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+    "sha256": "44f1c81d76baf4dc965afc2cd109ac165ae8fe0308f202018ea21bac786bcd0b"
+  },
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artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/calibration-metrics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,274 @@
+{
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+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/candidate-vs-incumbent.json

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+{
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+    "global_and_critical_subgroups_required": true,
+    "missing_or_insufficient_support": "not_evaluable",
+    "numeric_margin": "to_be_frozen_before_protected_access",
+    "unit": "paired independent AOI"
+  },
+  "reason": "Phase 4 has no valid real incumbent product baseline and no pre-registered candidate; synthetic fixture values cannot define non-inferiority.",
+  "schema_version": 2,
+  "status": "not_evaluable"
+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/development-split-manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,334 @@
+{
+  "allowed_splits": [
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+  "assignment_algorithm": "group-before-split-deficit-balancer-v1",
+  "assignment_mode": "preassigned",
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artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/error-taxonomy.json

@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+{
+  "claim_boundary": "Synthetic deterministic reference cases validate evaluator behavior, not production model accuracy.",
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+    {
+      "error_code": "D-VALIDATION-FP",
+      "kind": "validation_false_positive"
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+    {
+      "error_code": "M-FN-MISSED",
+      "kind": "event_false_negative"
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+    {
+      "error_code": "M-FN-MISSED",
+      "kind": "false_negative"
+    },
+    {
+      "error_code": "M-FP-CONFUSER",
+      "kind": "event_false_positive"
+    },
+    {
+      "error_code": "M-FP-CONFUSER",
+      "kind": "false_positive"
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+    {
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+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/evaluation-contract.json

@@ -0,0 +1,300 @@
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artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/protected-split-manifest.json

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+      "sample_id": "vector-test-flanders-suburban",
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+      "split": "test",
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+  "source_trust": {
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+    "policy_id": "geointel-p4-synthetic-fixture-v2",
+    "production_accuracy_use_allowed": false
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+  "training_access_allowed": false
+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/reference-implementation-baseline.json

@@ -0,0 +1,163 @@
+{
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+  "content_sha256": "aeb0f6510352f4e205e4fc4e8c423110ca72c2142016c7af846d758865f258c6",
+  "implementation": "backend/app/services/qa_service.py via scripts/run_golden_qa_benchmark.py",
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+      "description": "Two reference building polygons and two candidate building polygons: one candidate matches ref-1, one candidate is a false positive, and ref-2 is a false negative.",
+      "fixtures": {
+        "candidate": "fixtures/golden/predicted_buildings.geojson",
+        "reference": "fixtures/golden/reference_buildings.geojson"
+      },
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+        "metric_keys": [
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+          "false_positive_count",
+          "false_negative_count"
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+        "quality_check_count": 1
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+        "reference_feature_count": 2
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+      "status": "passed"
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+    {
+      "benchmark_id": "golden-buildings-perfect-match-v1",
+      "description": "One candidate building polygon exactly matches one reference polygon.",
+      "fixtures": {
+        "candidate": "fixtures/golden/predicted_buildings_perfect.geojson",
+        "reference": "fixtures/golden/reference_buildings_perfect.geojson"
+      },
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+    {
+      "benchmark_id": "golden-buildings-no-overlap-v1",
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+        "reference": "fixtures/golden/reference_buildings_no_overlap.geojson"
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+      "description": "One candidate MultiPolygon exactly matches one reference MultiPolygon.",
+      "fixtures": {
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+        "reference": "fixtures/golden/reference_buildings_multipolygon.geojson"
+      },
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artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/release-gate-report.json

@@ -0,0 +1,157 @@
+{
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+      "observed": [
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+    "complete_raw_predictions_retained": {
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+      "violating_samples": []
+    },
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+    "manifest_training_firewall_contract": {
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+        "non_train_role_blocked": true,
+        "protected_path_blocked": true,
+        "renamed_protected_lineage_blocked": true
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+        "challenge",
+        "test",
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+    "protected_operating_point_contract": {
+      "evidence": "Protected cases carry pre-registered configurations. Fixed AP/risk-coverage diagnostics cannot select an operating point or feed back into training.",
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "reference_implementation_baseline": {
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "stratified_metric_contract": {
+      "observed_overall_status": "not_evaluable",
+      "status": "pass"
+    },
+    "undefined_metric_truth_table": {
+      "sample_id": "background-test-pure-empty",
+      "status": "pass"
+    }
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+  "missing_gate_names": {
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+    "product": []
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+  "product_benchmark_status": "fail",
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+    "active_model_available_and_hash_verified": {
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+      "configured_sha256": "a9088b8491dfae36694b53e9e9406cb4e3511d334a5712fa34f75078a47759c1",
+      "reason": "Configured active model is not locally accessible.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
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+    "authoritative_reference_portfolio_available": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
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+    "executed_product_incumbent_baseline": {
+      "checked_artifacts": [],
+      "derived_gates": {
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+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
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+        "human_review_complete": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "protected_storage_isolation": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "representative_product_subgroup_support": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        },
+        "split_independence": {
+          "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+          "status": "not_evaluable"
+        }
+      },
+      "expected_path": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/product-baseline-manifest.json",
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "human_review_complete": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "phase3_leakage_resolved": {
+      "observed": "attention",
+      "status": "fail"
+    },
+    "protected_storage_isolation": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "representative_product_subgroup_support": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    },
+    "split_independence": {
+      "reason": "No executed, hash-bound product incumbent baseline manifest is available.",
+      "status": "not_evaluable"
+    }
+  },
+  "promotion_allowed": false,
+  "schema_version": 2,
+  "status": "fail",
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+    "local": [],
+    "product": []
+  }
+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/split-and-leakage-audit.json

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+{
+  "checked_identity_fields": [
+    "sample_id",
+    "group_id",
+    "source_family",
+    "acquisition_date",
+    "temporal_family",
+    "object_ids",
+    "native_feature_ids",
+    "raw_image_sha256",
+    "processed_image_sha256",
+    "label_sha256",
+    "record_sha256",
+    "perceptual_image_hash",
+    "label_geometry_hash",
+    "label_geometry_fingerprint",
+    "parent_raster_id",
+    "acquisition_id",
+    "bbox_distance"
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+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/tile-metrics.json

@@ -0,0 +1,207 @@
+{
+  "results": [
+    {
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+        "date": "2025-10-05",
+        "difficulty": "hard",
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+        "municipality": "Brussel",
+        "object_size": "not_applicable",
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+        "ood": false,
+        "region": "brussels",
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+        "sensor": "synthetic-multispectral",
+        "source": "fixture-thematic-raster",
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+      "task": "raster_classification"
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+        "season": "not_applicable",
+        "sensor": "elevation-raster",
+        "source": "fixture-dhmv",
+        "tile_edge": false,
+        "urbanity": "rural",
+        "vegetation": "moderate"
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+      "task": "terrain_interpretation"
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+  "status": "fixture_contract_only"
+}

artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/workflow-summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+{
+  "benchmark_manifest_sha256": "0ea5ab07f46c509a7a24943b31d5e9bfd6368920609227bc47613e18e52c4642",
+  "case_count": 9,
+  "evaluation_results_canonical_json_sha256": "55cdba9cce4dcdc88cee0829cd510d7e624a3472feb9d33f7e681621a792eba3",
+  "evidence_path": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b",
+  "evidence_run_id": "p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b",
+  "failure_example_count": 14,
+  "implemented_capability_count": 15,
+  "local_harness_status": "pass",
+  "phase4_done": false,
+  "phase5_ready": false,
+  "phase_decision": "blocked",
+  "product_benchmark_status": "fail",
+  "product_gate_evidence_sha256": "c9f5e3de3ab6d64911f8807b26caa661ccf911a5fd6b995107edda2004836e0c",
+  "promotion_allowed": false,
+  "reference_baseline_sha256": "aeb0f6510352f4e205e4fc4e8c423110ca72c2142016c7af846d758865f258c6",
+  "schema_version": 2,
+  "split_counts": {
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+    "calibration": 2,
+    "challenge": 4,
+    "test": 7,
+    "train": 3,
+    "val": 3
+  },
+  "status": "fail",
+  "task_family_count": 7
+}

docs/CODEX_EXECUTION_LOG.md

@@ -12391,3 +12391,56 @@ Open:
   **ready** for remediation/review. This does not unlock training, promotion,
   national validation or production release; those gates remain governed by
   the execution contract and the incomplete Phase 2 gates.
+
+## 2026-08-02 - Accuracy Improvement Program Phase 4 evaluation harness
+
+### Implemented and verified scope
+
+- Added a deterministic evaluator for object detection, building-footprint
+  segmentation, categorical raster interpretation, vector comparison, change
+  detection, terrain/height interpretation and geospatial data validation. It
+  retains exact references, pre-/post-filter predictions, config and lineage,
+  and reports task metrics, Wilson intervals, calibration, abstention,
+  subgroup support and a stable failure taxonomy.
+- Added a six-role split generator for `train`, `val`, `calibration`, `test`,
+  `background-test` and sealed `challenge`, with exact/near-duplicate,
+  identity, acquisition, object, geometry and 2-km spatial leakage gates.
+  Product mode requires strict P3/provenance records and rehashes four physical
+  asset types; protected roles are rejected by the training firewall.
+- Added a fail-closed governed product-baseline validator. It recomputes all
+  seven task families in-process and verifies current active-model bytes,
+  CUDA/GPU identity, authority, human review, leakage, vault and all thirteen
+  subgroup dimensions. Loose status fields cannot turn a productgate green.
+- Fixed an evidence-ledger self-reference in workflow v2.0.1: only the
+  gate-relevant `/runtime/active_model` projection from `status.json` is
+  canonically hashed. Updating timestamps, Phase-4/5 bookkeeping, documents or
+  evidence IDs therefore leaves the run fingerprint stable; changing the
+  active model changes it.
+
+### Evidence and verification
+
+- Normative run `p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b` is bound to source commit
+  `70fb4b94e5cb7c248beec5a936ce186f38cc183c`. Its canonical benchmark hash is
+  `0ea5ab07f46c509a7a24943b31d5e9bfd6368920609227bc47613e18e52c4642` and
+  its evidence-manifest file hash is
+  `fdc15a95ee2a0754dfa169f4b41036e084b8d8909afc37fd8ea68ee6b9210f98`.
+- The targeted Phase-4 suite passed 60 tests. The broader contracts,
+  provenance, Phase-3/4, golden-QA, runtime-model and migration suite passed
+  103 tests with the installed Git Bash provider; the Windows Store WSL stub
+  was unavailable and is not a code failure. The focused migration/provenance
+  subset passed 29 tests and Alembic has one head, `202608010001`.
+- Ruff, Ruff format check, compileall and diff check passed on all Phase-4
+  paths. No Python mypy/pyright typecheck is configured in this repository.
+- Repeated workflow execution produced the same run ID and byte-identical
+  immutable bundle. `--allow-product-blocked` returned 0; standard fail-closed
+  execution returned 2.
+
+### Decision
+
+- The local harness is `pass`, but the governed product benchmark is `fail`
+  because Phase-3 leakage remains `attention`. Active model execution,
+  authority coverage, representative review, independent product splits,
+  physical vault isolation and thirteen-dimension subgroup support remain
+  `not_evaluable` without governed evidence. Phase 4 remains **in progress**,
+  Phase 5 remains **not ready**, and promotion/training feedback from protected
+  data is not authorized.

docs/TODO.md

@@ -16,6 +16,34 @@ Uitvoeringsbord: `docs/PYTORCH_TRAINING_ROADMAP_BELGIUM.md`.
 - [ ] Train en evalueer een Belgische gebouwchallenger onafhankelijk; promoveer alleen zonder achtergrondregressie.
 - [ ] Houd zonnepanelen en segmentatie `not_configured` tot gereviewde taaklabels en hold-outs bestaan.
 
+## Accuracy-programma — fase 4
+
+Normatieve protocollen: `docs/accuracy-program/10-evaluation-protocol.md`,
+`11-baseline-benchmark.md` en `12-release-gates.md`.
+
+- [x] Inventariseer 15 geïmplementeerde capabilities in zeven afzonderlijke
+  evaluatorfamilies zonder deterministische GIS als geleerd model voor te stellen.
+- [x] Implementeer taakgebonden metrics, raw prediction-retentie,
+  betrouwbaarheidsintervallen, subgroepsupport en een machineleesbare
+  failure-taxonomie.
+- [x] Genereer zes code-owned splitrollen (`train`, `val`, `calibration`,
+  `test`, `background-test`, sealed `challenge`) met exacte, near-duplicate-,
+  identiteit-, tijd- en 2-km-leakagegates.
+- [x] Bescherm test/background-test/challenge tegen training, thresholdselectie,
+  modelselectie, gewijzigde bytes en onbewezen provenance.
+- [x] Voer de bestaande `QaService` als referentienulmeting uit en leg alle
+  Phase-4-evidence content-addressed en immutable vast.
+- [x] Maak statusboekhouding zelfreferentievrij: alleen de actieve-modelprojectie
+  beïnvloedt de benchmarkfingerprint; productgates vereisen governed evidence.
+- [ ] Los de bevestigde Phase-3-leakagebevinding op en freeze nieuwe onafhankelijke
+  product-splits zonder cross-splitparen onder 2 km.
+- [ ] Lever één governed zeven-taken productbaseline met actuele modelbytes,
+  CUDA/GPU-receipt, authorityportfolio en in-process herberekende raw metrics.
+- [ ] Lever checksumgebonden menselijke review, fysieke protected vault en
+  representatieve support voor alle 13 kritieke subgroepdimensies.
+- [ ] Markeer fase 4 pas `done` en fase 5 pas `ready` wanneer alle productgates
+  in dezelfde workflow `pass` zijn; huidige status is local `pass`, product `fail`.
+
 ## Actieve post-RC datadekkingsfase
 
 Professionaliseringspass (2026-07-27):

docs/accuracy-program/08-data-contracts.md

@@ -555,3 +555,8 @@ The source/provenance part of Fase 2 is green only when:
 
 Until all gates are green, Fase 2 is in progress, Fase 3 is not ready and
 training/promotion remains blocked by the Phase-1 execution contract.
+
+> **Historische handoff:** deze zin legt de P2-gate vast zoals die bij oplevering
+> van dit document gold. Fase 3 is nadien binnen de afgebakende lokale scope
+> uitgevoerd. De actuele fasebeslissing staat uitsluitend in
+> `docs/accuracy-program/status.json`.

docs/accuracy-program/09-full-data-scan.md

@@ -70,3 +70,8 @@ De fixturetest controleert geldige en foutieve GeoJSON, corrupte rasterinput, ex
 ## Fasebeslissing
 
 Fase 3 is `done` voor de afgebakende projectomgeving: alle 295 veilige lokale bestanden zijn verwerkt en de drie niet-bereikbare externe grenzen zijn expliciet geregistreerd. Fase 4 is `ready` voor verdere beoordeling van de gevonden quarantine- en leakage-signalen. Dit is geen modelpromotie- of nationale kwaliteitsclaim; de inhoudelijke anomalieën moeten eerst door de volgende fase worden hersteld of menselijk beoordeeld.
+
+> **Historische handoff:** `ready` beschrijft het overdrachtsmoment direct na
+> de Phase-3-scan. Het Phase-4-harnas is inmiddels geïmplementeerd, maar de
+> actuele productbenchmark is nog `not_evaluable`; de normatieve actuele
+> status staat in `docs/accuracy-program/status.json`.

docs/accuracy-program/10-evaluation-protocol.md

@@ -0,0 +1,175 @@
+# Fase 4 — Evaluatieprotocol
+
+## Doel en huidige claimgrens
+
+Het Phase-4-harnas maakt evaluatorgedrag, splits, ruwe voorspellingen en
+releasebeslissingen reproduceerbaar. De lokale referentiecases zijn bewust
+synthetisch en bewijzen uitsluitend dat het harnas correct en fail-closed
+werkt. Zij zijn geen meting van productie-accuracy, België-brede
+generaliseerbaarheid of menselijke aanvaardbaarheid.
+
+De volledige workflow is:
+
+```powershell
+python scripts/run_accuracy_phase4_benchmark.py
+```
+
+De standaarduitvoering retourneert exitcode `2` zolang een productgate niet
+groen is. Voor het uitsluitend regenereren en testen van lokale evidence mag:
+
+```powershell
+python scripts/run_accuracy_phase4_benchmark.py --allow-product-blocked
+```
+
+worden gebruikt. Die vlag verandert geen gate, score of beslissing. Hij maakt
+alleen een succesvolle lokale harnascontrole bruikbaar in CI terwijl externe
+productinput aantoonbaar ontbreekt.
+
+## Geïmplementeerde taken
+
+De inventaris scheidt geleerde modellen van deterministische GIS-analyse. Een
+officiële of deterministische GIS-functie wordt niet kunstmatig als
+machine-learningmodel voorgesteld.
+
+De machineleesbare inventaris omvat 15 concrete platformcapabilities, gemapt
+op zeven evaluatorfamilies. Een family-dekking geldt niet automatisch als een
+zelfstandige benchmarkclaim voor iedere onderliggende microfunctionaliteit.
+
+| Taakfamilie | Werkelijke implementatie | Phase-4-metrics | Huidige productstatus |
+| --- | --- | --- | --- |
+| Objectdetectie | `backend/app/services/detection_service.py` | precision, recall, F1, AP50, AP50–95, matched IoU, ECE, Brier, coverage-risk | evaluatorcontract groen; actieve modelbenchmark lokaal niet uitvoerbaar |
+| Gebouwfootprintsegmentatie | `backend/app/services/segmentation_service.py` | object-P/R/F1, IoU, Dice, boundary F1, centroidafstand, relatieve oppervlaktefout, topologie | evaluatorcontract groen; geen representatieve beschermde productset bereikbaar |
+| Vectorvergelijking en detectie-QA | `backend/app/services/qa_service.py`, `backend/app/services/detection_qa_service.py` | object-P/R/F1, mean IoU, topologische geldigheid | referentie-implementatie via de golden QA-fixtures uitgevoerd |
+| Veranderingsdetectie | `backend/app/services/change_detection_service.py` | event-level P/R/F1, apart voor toegevoegd en verwijderd | evaluatorcontract groen; productbaseline niet vastgesteld |
+| Thematische rasterinterpretatie | `backend/app/services/thematic_raster_analysis_service.py` en rasterservices | confusion matrix, pixelaccuracy, class-P/R/F1, class-IoU, mean IoU | alleen metriekcontract voor categorische rasters; er is geen geleerd generiek rasterclassificatiemodel aangetroffen |
+| Hoogte- en terreininterpretatie | terrein-, hoogte-, bathymetrie- en overstromingsservices | MAE, RMSE, bias, coverage en foutverdeling in gedeclareerde eenheid | deterministische bronanalyse; referentiedata en eenheden blijven taakgebonden |
+| Geospatiale datavalidatie | `backend/app/services/data_contract_validation.py` en Phase-3-scanner | anomaly-P/R/F1, blocker/critical misses | contractfixture groen; echte bronscan blijft de Phase-3-evidence |
+
+Vector clip/buffer/intersect, ruimtelijke aggregatie, raster inspect/reproject/
+clip/tile, NDVI/NDWI/NDBI, flood hazard, bathymetrie en AOI-partitionering
+vallen onder de overeenkomstige deterministische validatie-, vector-, raster-
+of terreinfamilie. De geo-assistent is een orkestratie-interface en krijgt geen
+misleidende zelfstandige accuracy-score; de onderliggende toolresultaten
+blijven maatgevend.
+
+## Metriccontract
+
+Alle objectmatches zijn one-to-one en gebruiken de vooraf vastgelegde
+taakconfiguratie. Er is geen data-afhankelijke threshold-, operating-point- of
+modelselectie op test-, background-test- of challenge-input. Vaste diagnostische
+AP- en coverage-riskcurves veranderen het vooraf geregistreerde operating point
+niet. Ongedefinieerde delingen worden `null` met expliciete support, niet
+kunstmatig `1.0`.
+
+| Uitvoertype | Verplichte kernmetingen | Aanvullende controle |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Objecten | TP, FP, FN, precision, recall, F1 | IoU, AP, calibration en abstention |
+| Footprints | objectmetingen, mean IoU en Dice | boundary F1, centroid, area en topologie |
+| Categorische rasters | confusion matrix, per-class F1/IoU, mean IoU | pixelaccuracy en class-support |
+| Changes | event-level P/R/F1 per changeklasse | globale score mag een klasse niet maskeren |
+| Continue hoogte | MAE, RMSE, bias | coverage, eenheid en foutverdeling |
+| Validatie | anomaly-P/R/F1 | iedere gemiste blocker/critical anomaly blokkeert |
+
+Voor binomiale precision en recall rapporteert het harnas 95%-Wilsonintervallen.
+Bij te weinig support blijft de subgroepgate `not_evaluable`; de supportreden
+blijft afzonderlijk zichtbaar. Een breed interval of ontbrekende metric is geen
+positief bewijs. Voor een toekomstige productbenchmark moet bij ruimtelijk
+geclusterde observaties bovendien een vooraf vastgelegde AOI- of
+clusterbootstrap worden gebruikt in plaats van pixels als onafhankelijke
+steekproeven te behandelen.
+
+## Splitcontract en leakage-gates
+
+`scripts/generate_accuracy_phase4_splits.py` genereert twee afzonderlijke,
+gehashte manifesten uit één versieerbare bron:
+
+- development: `train`, `val` en `calibration`;
+- protected release only: immutable `test`, `background-test` en sealed
+  `challenge`.
+
+Iedere sample draagt minimaal taak, split, `sample_id`, ruimtelijke `group_id`,
+`source_family`, `temporal_family`, acquisition- en parent-rasteridentiteit,
+native feature- en object-ID's, bounding box, ruwe en verwerkte imagehash,
+labelhash, perceptual imagehash, labelgeometriehash en een canonieke recordhash.
+Bij automatische toewijzing worden gekoppelde records eerst als één component
+gegroepeerd. De generator faalt wanneer:
+
+- een identiteit, object, bron-/tijdsfamilie, acquisition of parent-raster
+  meerdere splits raakt;
+- exacte image-, label- of recordbytes meerdere splits raken;
+- perceptuele of geometrische bijna-duplicaten meerdere splits raken;
+- bounding boxes uit verschillende splits dichter liggen dan de vooraf
+  gedeclareerde onafhankelijkheidsbuffer;
+- een verplichte split ontbreekt of een record niet valideerbaar is.
+
+Bronvolgorde heeft geen invloed op de bron- of splitmanifesthash. De huidige
+fixture bevat 21 samples over alle zes normatieve rollen en gebruikt een buffer
+van 2.000 meter. Zij kan alleen door een expliciete codeparameter als synthetische
+fixture worden geopend en draagt altijd `production_accuracy_use_allowed=false`.
+Productiemodus vereist een strikt P3-manifest, exact provenance-record, vier
+toegankelijke assetpaden en herberekende bytes-hashes. Dit is dus geen bewijs dat
+het historische Belgische corpus onafhankelijk is. De Phase-3-bevinding van 24
+cross-splitparen onder 2 km blijft blokkerend.
+
+## Bescherming van test en challenge
+
+De lokale workflow bindt evaluatie aan de exacte protected-manifesthash en
+accepteert alleen de `test`- en `background-test`-ID's uit dat manifest.
+Challengecases en -labels worden door de evaluator geweigerd. Configuraties zijn
+vooraf vast. Per case bewaart `baseline-raw-predictions.json` de exacte
+referenties, pre-filter- en post-filtervoorspellingen, configuratie en lineage.
+`assert_training_inputs_safe()` en de twee echte trainingsdataset-builders
+weigeren beschermde rollen, paden, inhoudshashes en alle relevante identiteit-
+en lineagevelden. In productiemodus worden toegankelijke bronbytes en hun P3-
+en provenancebinding opnieuw gecontroleerd; een padloos of hernoemd record faalt.
+De regressietests bewijzen blokkering en een geldige development-run.
+
+Dit is logische bescherming in de repository. Fysieke isolatie met een
+afzonderlijke vault, beperkte credentials en een immutable accesslog is in de
+huidige projectomgeving niet bewezen. Daarom staat
+`protected_storage_isolation` in de productgates op `not_evaluable`; de lokale
+firewall mag niet als vervanging voor die productcontrole worden beschreven.
+
+## Stratificatie en failure-evidence
+
+Iedere beschermde case declareert waar relevant regio/gemeente, stedelijk of
+landelijk karakter, objectgrootte, bron/sensor, resolutie, seizoen/datum,
+vegetatie/occlusie, moeilijkheid en context. Het metricrapport groepeert die velden en
+legt support expliciet vast. Kritieke subgroepen moeten vóór een echte baseline
+worden vastgesteld; ontbrekende of te kleine groepen blokkeren een release.
+
+`baseline-raw-predictions.json` bewaart de ongesommeerde referenties,
+pre-/postfiltervoorspellingen, matches, configuratie en lineage.
+`failure-gallery.json` bewaart stabiele failure-ID's, taak, fouttype, strata en
+concreet machineleesbaar bewijs. Een visuele gallery van echte productbeelden
+kan pas worden gemaakt wanneer de beschermde imagery rechtmatig en gecontroleerd
+bereikbaar is.
+
+## Reproduceerbaarheid
+
+Het benchmarkmanifest bindt repositorycommit, evaluator- en workflowversie,
+alle drie Phase-4-scripts, de echte QA-service, bronfixtures, protected cases,
+golden QA-fixture, Phase-3-manifesten, bronmatrix, metriekcontract, runtime en
+beide splitmanifesten met SHA-256. Uit `status.json` wordt uitsluitend de
+gate-relevante `/runtime/active_model`-projectie canoniek gehasht. Administratieve
+velden zoals `generated_at`, Phase-4/5-status, documenten en evidence-run-ID's
+zijn bewust geen benchmarkinput: zo kan het schrijven van de evidenceledger niet
+zijn eigen runfingerprint veranderen. Review-, authority-, leakage-, vault- en
+subgroepgates kunnen daardoor niet uit losse statusvelden slagen; zij vereisen
+checksumgebonden product- en Phase-3-evidence. Een productbaseline wordt alleen
+geaccepteerd wanneer dezelfde evaluator alle zeven taakfamilies in-process
+herberekent en exact overeenkomt met checksumgebonden raw-, review-, authority-,
+leakage-, vault- en CUDA-evidence. Dynamische UUID's uit de QA-service worden uit
+de canonieke referentiescore verwijderd. Iedere run krijgt een content-addressed
+ID; twee gelijke uitvoeringen leveren byte-identieke inhoud op en onverwachte
+bestanden of submappen maken de immutable bundle ongeldig.
+
+```powershell
+python scripts/run_accuracy_phase4_benchmark.py --allow-product-blocked
+python -m pytest backend/tests/test_accuracy_phase4_evaluation.py backend/tests/test_accuracy_phase4_evaluator_hardening.py backend/tests/test_accuracy_phase4_split_hardening.py -q -p no:cacheprovider
+python -m ruff check scripts/accuracy_phase4_evaluator.py scripts/generate_accuracy_phase4_splits.py scripts/run_accuracy_phase4_benchmark.py backend/tests/test_accuracy_phase4_evaluation.py backend/tests/test_accuracy_phase4_evaluator_hardening.py backend/tests/test_accuracy_phase4_split_hardening.py
+```
+
+De machineleesbare bewijsset staat onder
+`artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/`. De
+actuele fasebeslissing staat in `12-release-gates.md` en `status.json`.

docs/accuracy-program/11-baseline-benchmark.md

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+# Fase 4 — Baselinebenchmark
+
+## Beslissing
+
+Het lokale evaluatieharnas is reproduceerbaar en groen. Een betrouwbare
+baseline van het actieve GeoIntel-productiemodel is in deze omgeving niet
+uitvoerbaar. De productbenchmark is `fail` door de bevestigde Phase-3-leakage;
+andere productgates blijven `not_evaluable` zonder governed bewijs. Er wordt
+daarom geen productie-accuracy-, België-brede of promotieclaim afgeleid.
+
+| Statusveld | Waarde |
+| --- | --- |
+| Benchmark-ID | `geointel-p4-reference-harness-v2` |
+| Lokale harnasstatus | `pass` |
+| Productbenchmark | `fail` |
+| Promotie toegestaan | `false` |
+| Phase 4 done | `false` |
+| Phase 5 ready | `false` |
+
+## Referentie-implementatie als nulmeting
+
+De bestaande productiecode in `backend/app/services/qa_service.py` is via
+`scripts/run_golden_qa_benchmark.py` uitgevoerd op vier bevroren golden
+QA-scenario's. De dynamische service-UUID wordt niet meegenomen in de
+canonieke inhoudshash.
+
+| Golden scenario | Precision | Recall | F1 | Mean matched IoU |
+| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
+| Partial match | 0,50 | 0,50 | 0,50 | 0,8339768339652592 |
+| Perfect match | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 |
+| No overlap | 0,00 | 0,00 | `null` | `null` |
+| Multipolygon match | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 | 1,00 |
+
+De canonieke referentiehash is
+`aeb0f6510352f4e205e4fc4e8c423110ca72c2142016c7af846d758865f258c6`.
+Dit bewijst de rekenkundige regressiestabiliteit van de QA-service, niet de
+kwaliteit van een detector of segmentatiemodel.
+
+## Multi-task evaluatorbaseline
+
+Negen synthetische, deterministische `test`/`background-test`-cases oefenen
+zeven evaluatorfamilies en 15 concrete capabilityrecords uit. De gecombineerde
+resultaathash is
+`55cdba9cce4dcdc88cee0829cd510d7e624a3472feb9d33f7e681621a792eba3`.
+De cases zijn bewust klein; hun scores testen formules, null-semantiek,
+raw-retentie, stratificatie en foutclassificatie, niet productkwaliteit.
+
+| Familie | Voornaamste fixture-uitkomst | Claimgrens |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Objectdetectie | P 0,667; R 1,000; F1 0,800; AP50 1,000; AP50–95 0,901 | formule-/harnastest |
+| Footprintsegmentatie | mean IoU 0,799; Dice 0,888; boundary F1 1,000 | formule-/harnastest |
+| Categorisch raster | accuracy 0,833; macro F1 0,822; mean IoU 0,722 | metriekcontract, geen geleerd rastermodel |
+| Vectorvergelijking | P/R/F1 0,500; mean matched IoU 1,000 | formule-/harnastest |
+| Change detection | globale P/R/F1 0,500; afzonderlijke added/removed metrics | eventclassificatie zichtbaar |
+| Terrein | MAE 0,275 m TAW; RMSE 0,287 m TAW; coverage 0,800 | eenheids-/coveragecontract |
+| Datavalidatie | P/R/F1 0,667; één critical miss | fail-closed anomaliecontract |
+
+Alle subgroepen hebben in deze kleine fixture onvoldoende statistische support.
+Hun `release_gate_status` is daarom `not_evaluable`, met de supportreden apart
+geregistreerd; geen gemiddelde kan dit omzetten in releasebewijs. De
+95%-Wilsonintervallen zijn overeenkomstig breed.
+
+## Ruwe voorspellingen en fouten
+
+De workflow bewaart exacte referenties, pre-/postfiltervoorspellingen,
+configuratie en lineage vóór iedere samenvatting. De failure gallery bevat 14
+deterministische voorbeelden, waaronder FP/FN, boundary- en area-bias,
+rastermisclassificatie, calibratie en een gemiste critical-validatieafwijking.
+De failure-ID's zijn inhoudsgebonden en kunnen in regressietests worden
+hergebruikt.
+
+Relevante evidence:
+
+- `baseline-raw-predictions.json` — exacte raw referenties, pre-/postfilteroutputs, config en lineage;
+- `metric-report.json` — taak- en subgroepmetingen met support en intervallen;
+- `failure-gallery.json` — machineleesbare fouttaxonomie en voorbeelden;
+- `reference-implementation-baseline.json` — werkelijke QA-service-uitvoering;
+- `benchmark-manifest.json` — alle input-, split-, code- en evaluatoridentiteiten.
+
+De canonieke benchmarkmanifesthash is
+`0ea5ab07f46c509a7a24943b31d5e9bfd6368920609227bc47613e18e52c4642`;
+de exacte bestandshash is
+`868dd7eb2dfa8344e417879ed3f5dd7c7d9e5673add7e3e2294c5cbde4b75d57`.
+Evidence-run `p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b` bindt uitvoerbare codecommit
+`70fb4b94e5cb7c248beec5a936ce186f38cc183c`. De evidence-manifestbestandshash
+is `fdc15a95ee2a0754dfa169f4b41036e084b8d8909afc37fd8ea68ee6b9210f98`;
+de release-gatereportbestandshash is
+`e5f1c9c43c8da22acfa5486e641c010a278431f90634f91335b039ab7bdb50a4`.
+Deze hashes bewijzen reproduceerbaarheid en integriteit, niet productaccuracy.
+
+## Waarom de productbaseline niet uitvoerbaar is
+
+De productgates zijn bewijsgebonden en kunnen niet vanuit losse statusvelden
+groen worden gemaakt:
+
+1. de actieve modelconfiguratie verwijst naar `/app/models/...pt`, die lokaal
+   niet als bestand beschikbaar is;
+2. er is geen governed productmanifest met in-process herberekende raw evidence
+   voor alle zeven taakfamilies en een actueel CUDA/GPU-receipt;
+3. een volledige GRB/PICC/UrbIS/DHMV/SPW/MDK-taak-/zoneportfolio ontbreekt;
+4. een checksumgebonden reviewledger ontbreekt; historisch staat V56 op 0/180;
+5. een productgebonden geometrische leakage-audit ontbreekt; historisch zijn er
+   24 cross-splitparen onder 2 km;
+6. de Phase-3-leakagestatus is bevestigd `attention` en dus `fail`;
+7. vaultisolatie met hash-chained accesslog is niet bewezen;
+8. representatieve support over alle 13 vereiste subgroupdimensies ontbreekt.
+
+Door de fail-first aggregatie maakt de bevestigde Phase-3-leakage de huidige
+productbenchmark `fail`; ontbrekende productartefacten blijven afzonderlijk
+`not_evaluable`. Geen van beide toestanden laat promotie toe.
+
+Daarnaast waren Tower-corpora, gemounte modelvolumes en de productie-PostGIS/API
+in Phase 3 expliciet onbereikbaar. Het harnas verzint daarvoor geen vervangende
+ground truth en gebruikt OSM niet automatisch als gezagsbron voor gebouwen.
+
+## Betekenis voor volgende training
+
+Test- en challenge-data mogen niet worden geopend voor training,
+thresholdselectie, modelselectie of iteratieve foutcorrectie. Eerst moeten de
+representatieve review, nieuwe onafhankelijke splits, lokale gezagsdata,
+protected vault en een checksumbare incumbent-run beschikbaar zijn. Daarna
+worden modelkeuzes op `val` en operating points op `calibration` vooraf
+vastgelegd; pas vervolgens mag één immutable kandidaat de protected test en
+background-test doorlopen. Challenge-labels blijven sealed.

docs/accuracy-program/12-release-gates.md

@@ -0,0 +1,109 @@
+# Fase 4 — Releasegates
+
+## Gateprincipe
+
+GeoIntel gebruikt een conjunctieve, fail-closed beslissing: iedere verplichte
+gate moet groen zijn. Een hogere gemiddelde score compenseert nooit een
+ernstige regressie, ontbrekende support of een critical miss in een vereiste
+regio, bron, context of taak.
+
+Er wordt in Phase 4 geen arbitrair hoog accuracydoel verzonnen. Numerieke
+releasecriteria blijven `not_frozen_without_reviewed_representative_incumbent_baseline`.
+Ze worden pas vastgesteld uit taakrisico, operationele productvereisten,
+datakwaliteit en een representatieve, gereviewde incumbentbaseline, en altijd
+vóór protected-testtoegang.
+
+## Lokale harnasgates
+
+De volgende controles zijn in `release-gate-report.json` groen:
+
+| Gate | Status | Bewijs |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Alle gedeclareerde taakfamilies | pass | zeven families en 15 capabilities gedeclareerd en geobserveerd |
+| Split leakage | pass | zes code-owned rollen; exacte/near-duplicate/identity/2-km-gates groen voor de fixture |
+| Training firewall | pass | protected path/role/lineage en padloze of gewijzigde bytes worden geweigerd |
+| Geen protected modelselectie | pass | vooraf geregistreerde config; diagnostische curves selecteren niets |
+| Ruwe voorspellingen | pass | exacte referenties, pre-/postfilteroutputs, config en lineage behouden |
+| Referentie-implementatie | pass | vier golden cases via de echte `QaService` |
+| Subgroepcontract | pass | alle 13 dimensies, support, CI en worst-stratum zichtbaar |
+| Null-semantiek | pass | ongedefinieerd is `null`; promotion blijft uit |
+
+Deze gates bewijzen dat de evaluator zich lokaal correct gedraagt. Ze bewijzen
+niet dat het productiemodel voldoet.
+Een test-only governed-contractfixture met 70 cases bewijst dat de groene route
+structureel bereikbaar is en dat tampering wordt geweigerd. De gemockte runtime
+en handgemaakte cases zijn uitdrukkelijk geen productbewijs.
+
+
+## Productgates
+
+De volgende actuele gates blokkeren Phase 4:
+
+| Gate | Status | Objectief bewijs |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Actief model bereikbaar en hashbaar | not_evaluable | geconfigureerd `/app/models`-asset is lokaal afwezig |
+| Volledige gezagsportfolio | not_evaluable | geen governed GRB/PICC/UrbIS/DHMV/SPW/MDK-taak-/zonebewijs |
+| Representatieve menselijke review | not_evaluable | geen checksumgebonden reviewledger; historisch 0/180 |
+| Ruimtelijke split-onafhankelijkheid | not_evaluable | geen productgebonden geometrische audit; historisch 24 paren <2 km |
+| Phase-3 leakage opgelost | fail | actuele status `attention` |
+| Fysieke protected storage isolation | not_evaluable | geen vaultbewijs met hash-chained accesslog |
+| Uitgevoerde product-incumbent | not_evaluable | geen model/raw/config/CUDA-gebonden productmanifest |
+| Representatieve subgroup-support | not_evaluable | geen productmetrics over alle 13 dimensies |
+
+Door `fail > not_evaluable > pass` is de productbenchmarkstatus `fail`. Dat is
+geen gemeten accuracy failure: de bevestigde leakagegate faalt en de overige
+productmetingen zijn nog niet evalueerbaar. `promotion_allowed` blijft `false`.
+
+## Toekomstige numerieke gatefreeze
+
+Een latere gatefreeze moet per taak minimaal vastleggen:
+
+- exacte model-, evaluator-, preprocessing-, bron- en splitmanifesthashes;
+- klasse- en matchbeleid, operating threshold en NMS-configuratie;
+- globale primaire metric met betrouwbaarheidsinterval;
+- vereiste regio-, gemeente-, stedelijkheids-, objectgrootte-, bron-, sensor-,
+  resolutie-, seizoen-, datum-, vegetatie-, occlusie-, moeilijkheids- en
+  contextsubgroepen;
+- minimale onafhankelijke AOI-/objectsupport per groep;
+- non-inferioritymarge tegenover de incumbent;
+- harde maxima voor kritieke false negatives, false positives,
+  topologiefouten en calibration error;
+- abstention/coverage-regel voor onzekere gevallen;
+- runtime-, GPU-, latency- en resourcecontract waar operationeel relevant.
+
+Een releasebeslissing is alleen positief wanneer zowel de globale gate als
+iedere kritieke subgroepgate groen is. `insufficient_support`, `null`, een
+ontbrekende groep, ongeldige lineage, een checksumverschil of een gemiste
+blocker/critical anomaly blokkeert.
+
+## Beschermde evaluatievolgorde
+
+1. Herstel of excludeer Phase-3-quarantine-items traceerbaar.
+2. Laat representatieve labels menselijk beoordelen en freeze een nieuwe
+   corpusversie; wijzig V56 niet in place.
+3. Genereer onafhankelijke `train`, `val`, `calibration`, `test`,
+   `background-test` en sealed `challenge`-manifesten; laat alle leakage-gates
+   slagen.
+4. Plaats test/background-test en externe challenge-labels in een afzonderlijke
+   vault met beperkte credentials en hash-chained immutable accesslog.
+5. Voer de incumbent uit en freeze targets op `val`, operating points op
+   `calibration` en operationele vereisten vóór protected toegang.
+6. Train uitsluitend op `train`; selecteer checkpoints alleen op `val`.
+7. Pre-registreer één immutable kandidaat en open `test` en `background-test`
+   één keer; challenge-labels blijven sealed.
+8. Bewaar raw predictions, herbereken paired/subgroepmetrics in-process en neem
+   één fail-closed releasebeslissing.
+9. Gebruik protected resultaten nooit als feedback voor dezelfde kandidaat- of
+   trainingsfamilie.
+
+## Actuele fasebeslissing
+
+Phase 4 blijft `in_progress`: het reproduceerbare lokale harnas is klaar, maar
+de echte protected productbaseline kan nog niet geldig worden uitgevoerd.
+Phase 5 blijft `not_ready`. Deze status verandert pas wanneer alle productgates
+in dezelfde checksumbare workflow groen zijn; documentatie of fixture-scores
+kunnen die voorwaarde niet omzeilen.
+
+Normatieve evidence-run: `p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b`, gebonden aan
+codecommit `70fb4b94e5cb7c248beec5a936ce186f38cc183c` en canonieke
+benchmarkmanifesthash `0ea5ab07f46c509a7a24943b31d5e9bfd6368920609227bc47613e18e52c4642`.

docs/accuracy-program/status.json

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
   "schema_version": 1,
   "program": "GeoIntel Accuracy Improvement Program",
   "phase": "P4",
-  "generated_at": "2026-08-02T01:04:48+02:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-08-02T04:40:51+02:00",
   "scope": {
     "product": "Belgium and the Belgian North Sea",
     "active_building_model_claim": "Mol/Kempen only, operator review required",
@@ -104,9 +104,56 @@
     ]
   },
   "phase4": {
-    "status": "ready",
+    "status": "in_progress",
-    "meaning": "Ready to remediate and review the P3 anomaly and quarantine manifests; release gates remain governed by P2 and the execution contract.",
+    "meaning": "The content-addressed local evaluation harness passes, but the governed product benchmark fails on confirmed Phase-3 leakage and remains not evaluable for missing product evidence.",
-    "evidence_root": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P3"
+    "workflow": "scripts/run_accuracy_phase4_benchmark.py",
+    "workflow_version": "2.0.1",
+    "evaluator_version": "2.1.0",
+    "split_generator_version": "1.3.0",
+    "local_harness_status": "pass",
+    "product_benchmark_status": "fail",
+    "phase4_done": false,
+    "evidence_run_id": "p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b",
+    "evidence_root": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b",
+    "repository_commit": "70fb4b94e5cb7c248beec5a936ce186f38cc183c",
+    "benchmark_manifest_sha256": "0ea5ab07f46c509a7a24943b31d5e9bfd6368920609227bc47613e18e52c4642",
+    "benchmark_file_sha256": "868dd7eb2dfa8344e417879ed3f5dd7c7d9e5673add7e3e2294c5cbde4b75d57",
+    "evidence_manifest_file_sha256": "fdc15a95ee2a0754dfa169f4b41036e084b8d8909afc37fd8ea68ee6b9210f98",
+    "release_gate_report_file_sha256": "e5f1c9c43c8da22acfa5486e641c010a278431f90634f91335b039ab7bdb50a4",
+    "product_gate_evidence_sha256": "c9f5e3de3ab6d64911f8807b26caa661ccf911a5fd6b995107edda2004836e0c",
+    "case_count": 9,
+    "task_family_count": 7,
+    "implemented_capability_count": 15,
+    "failure_example_count": 14,
+    "split_counts": {
+      "background-test": 2,
+      "calibration": 2,
+      "challenge": 4,
+      "test": 7,
+      "train": 3,
+      "val": 3
+    },
+    "blockers": [
+      "configured active model bytes are not locally accessible",
+      "no governed seven-task product baseline manifest with current CUDA receipt exists",
+      "Phase-3 leakage status is attention and therefore a failing product gate",
+      "no checksum-bound representative human review ledger exists",
+      "no governed zero-under-2-km product split audit exists",
+      "no protected vault evidence with hash-chained access log exists",
+      "no complete task-zone authority portfolio exists",
+      "no representative support over all thirteen subgroup dimensions exists"
+    ],
+    "does_not_mean": [
+      "Phase 4 is complete",
+      "production accuracy is measured",
+      "Phase 5 is ready",
+      "training or promotion is allowed"
+    ]
+  },
+  "phase5": {
+    "status": "not_ready",
+    "meaning": "Phase 5 remains blocked until every governed Phase-4 product gate passes in the same checksum-bound workflow.",
+    "blocked_by": "phase4"
   },
   "runtime": {
     "cuda_available": true,
@@ -276,6 +323,35 @@
       "static_inventory": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P2/source-contract-inventory.json",
       "claim_boundary": "This is not a production migration deployment, corpus-release, accuracy or promotion result."
     },
+    "phase4_evaluation": {
+      "status": "local_pass_product_fail",
+      "targeted_tests": {
+        "passed": 60,
+        "duration_seconds": 22.28
+      },
+      "relevant_regression_tests": {
+        "passed": 103,
+        "duration_seconds": 27.61,
+        "shell_provider": "C:/Program Files/Git/bin/bash.exe",
+        "note": "The Windows Store WSL bash stub was unavailable; the same shell syntax test passed with the installed Git Bash provider."
+      },
+      "ruff": "pass",
+      "format_check": "pass",
+      "compileall": "pass",
+      "python_typecheck": "not_configured",
+      "alembic_head": "202608010001",
+      "migration_and_provenance_tests": {
+        "passed": 29,
+        "duration_seconds": 5.73
+      },
+      "workflow_reproduction": {
+        "allow_product_blocked_exit": 0,
+        "default_exit": 2,
+        "byte_identical": true,
+        "status_bookkeeping_stable": true
+      },
+      "claim_boundary": "Local harness and contract gates pass. Product accuracy is not measured; Phase-3 leakage fails and missing governed product evidence remains not evaluable."
+    },
     "golden_qa": {
       "semantic_results_stable": true,
       "byte_identical": false,
@@ -311,12 +387,21 @@
     "docs/accuracy-program/06-implementation-roadmap.md",
     "docs/accuracy-program/07-source-authority-matrix.md",
     "docs/accuracy-program/08-data-contracts.md",
-    "docs/accuracy-program/09-full-data-scan.md"
+    "docs/accuracy-program/09-full-data-scan.md",
+    "docs/accuracy-program/10-evaluation-protocol.md",
+    "docs/accuracy-program/11-baseline-benchmark.md",
+    "docs/accuracy-program/12-release-gates.md"
   ],
   "evidence_root": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P1",
   "evidence_manifest": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P1/evidence-manifest.json",
   "phase2_evidence_root": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P2",
   "phase2_evidence_manifest": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P2/evidence-manifest.json",
   "phase3_evidence_root": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P3",
-  "phase3_manifest": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P3/full-scan-manifest.json"
+  "phase3_manifest": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P3/full-scan-manifest.json",
+  "phase4_evidence_root": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b",
+  "phase4_evidence_manifest": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/evidence-manifest.json",
+  "phase4_benchmark_manifest": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/benchmark-manifest.json",
+  "phase4_release_gate_report": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/release-gate-report.json",
+  "phase4_metric_report": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/metric-report.json",
+  "phase4_failure_gallery": "artifacts/evidence/accuracy/P4/runs/p4-2.0.1-9677d0ef37db82bcf39b/failure-gallery.json"
 }