Add governed Statbel edition probe

docs/API_CONTRACTS.md

@@ -415,10 +415,15 @@ not marked stale merely because their source date is old. Unknown sources are
 ### GET `/api/v1/projects/{project_id}/datasets/source-catalog-probes`
 
 Performs an explicit, read-only release probe for the allowlisted GRB WFS,
-most-recent orthophoto WMS and ALZ agricultural-use parcel publication page.
+most-recent orthophoto WMS, Statbel population DCAT catalog and ALZ
+agricultural-use parcel publication page.
 For OGC services, the endpoint reads bounded `GetCapabilities` responses,
 confirms the expected layers and follows only HTTPS ISO 19139 `GetRecordById`
-links on `metadata.vlaanderen.be`. For ALZ, it reads only the bounded official
+links on `metadata.vlaanderen.be`. For Statbel, it reads the bounded official
+RDF/Turtle catalog and selects the latest uniquely identified Dutch
+`Bevolking per statistische sector` release. It requires the official landing
+page, CC BY 4.0 license and allowlisted distribution identities but never
+requests a ZIP or XLSX file. For ALZ, it reads only the bounded official
 HTML release page and accepts only exact
 `www.landbouwvlaanderen.be/bestanden/gis/agpa_<year>_<date>_public.zip` link
 identities. It does not request those archives. Query parameter `refresh=true`
@@ -438,6 +443,13 @@ edition as outdated. `service_type=HTML` uses `definitive_archive` and
 `current_snapshot` as evidence markers in the existing expected/matched/missing
 arrays; no parallel response shape is introduced.
 
+Statbel comparisons use the four-digit population reference year. The 2025
+release requires the new REDEGEO TXT/ZIP variant; its old-sector-layout file is
+reported only as transition evidence. `service_type=DCAT` uses
+`population_txt_current`, `landing_page` and `cc_by_4_0` as evidence markers.
+A newer statistical-sector geometry edition is not interpreted as a newer
+population release.
+
 The endpoint accepts no arbitrary URL, feature query, area or layer. It does
 not fetch vector features, raster pixels or models, create jobs/datasets, write
 to PostGIS or trigger an import. The normal `source-freshness` endpoint remains

docs/CODEX_EXECUTION_LOG.md

@@ -1,3 +1,38 @@
+## Sprint 226 - Governed Statbel population edition probe (2026-07-16)
+
+Implemented:
+- Extended the explicit source-catalog audit with the official Statbel DCAT
+  Turtle catalog. The parser selects one latest Dutch population-by-sector
+  release and requires consistent period evidence, identifier, canonical
+  landing page, CC BY 4.0 license and allowlisted distribution identities.
+- Added strict endpoint and final-redirect validation plus a separate 5 MiB
+  response limit. The catalog probe never follows a ZIP/XLSX link, imports a
+  Dataset, writes PostGIS or enables background polling.
+- Kept population reference year, sector-geometry edition and REDEGEO layout
+  distinct. The 2025 NEW distribution is current; OLD is transition evidence,
+  and the separate 2026 sector geometry is not presented as 2026 population.
+- Reused the canonical source-catalog response, cache, operator CLI and Status
+  UI. Propagated the fixed URL and size bound through local, Compose and Unraid
+  configuration and added RDFLib as a pure-Python core parser dependency.
+
+Validation:
+- The bounded parser read the live official DCAT catalog and identified
+  `NodeID6475`, population edition `2025`, four distributions, the new REDEGEO
+  layout, legacy transition availability, CC BY 4.0 and catalog date
+  `2026-07-07` without requesting a distribution.
+- All 24 focused source-catalog tests passed, including hostile host, redirect,
+  configured URL, duplicate release, conflicting year, missing license,
+  missing current distribution and oversized-response failures.
+- Complete readiness passed with 801 backend tests, 110 documented routes, one
+  Alembic head, frontend typecheck and production build. Static Alembic SQL,
+  Ruff, diff checks and shell syntax also passed. Local Docker validation was
+  unavailable on Windows and is completed through the Tower deployment gate.
+
+Boundary:
+- This is publication evidence only. A future population edition still needs
+  a governed schema, sector-geometry and totals review before the existing
+  operator may create a new immutable Dataset.
+
 ## Sprint 225 - Governed ALZ edition probe (2026-07-16)
 
 Implemented:

docs/DATA_SOURCES.md

@@ -172,7 +172,7 @@ gebeurd.
 | bronfamilie | huidige behandeling | volgende veilige stap |
 | --- | --- | --- |
 | GRB gebouwen/wegen/water/percelen | operationele, expliciete plan-stage-apply refresh met onveranderlijke snapshots | alleen een nieuw officieel gedateerd cataloguseditie na operatorbevestiging ophalen |
-| Statbel bevolking | jaarlijkse, expliciete edities in één tijdreeks | een nieuwe publicatie alleen na schema-, sectorgeometrie- en totalencontrole toevoegen |
+| Statbel bevolking | jaarlijkse, expliciete edities in één tijdreeks; officiële DCAT-releaseprobe | een nieuwe publicatie alleen na schema-, sectorgeometrie- en totalencontrole toevoegen |
 | ALZ landbouwgebruikspercelen | definitieve jaarlijkse edities 2008-2025; expliciete officiële publicatieprobe; metricvergelijking zonder objectlineage | een nieuwere definitieve v3-editie eerst handmatig beoordelen en daarna via de bestaande begrensde operatorflow toevoegen |
 | orthofoto | vaste lokale opname per expliciete analysezone; catalogusprobe is alleen een signaal | vluchtjaar, productvariant en dekking vergelijken voordat nieuwe pixels worden opgehaald |
 | landgebruik, thematische rasters, DHMV en VMM-scenario's | vaste product-/scenario-edities, geen rolling snapshot | alleen een nieuwe gedocumenteerde producteditie als afzonderlijke Dataset verwerven |
@@ -190,6 +190,14 @@ actuele `2026-v1` zichtbaar maar niet updategerechtigd blijft. De probe leest
 alleen de allowlisted HTML-pagina en linkidentiteiten; ZIP-archieven worden pas
 door de afzonderlijke operator opgehaald na menselijke editiebevestiging.
 
+De Statbel-probe leest uitsluitend de officiële DCAT Turtle-catalogus en
+selecteert de nieuwste unieke Nederlandstalige publicatie `Bevolking per
+statistische sector`. Voor 2025 vereist GeoIntel de nieuwe REDEGEO-indeling;
+de meegeleverde oude indeling is alleen overgangsevidentie. De cataloguslinks
+naar TXT/ZIP en XLSX worden op host, pad, jaar en variant gevalideerd maar niet
+opgehaald. De afzonderlijke statistische-sectorgeometrie 2026 betekent niet
+dat er al bevolkingscijfers per sector voor 2026 zijn gepubliceerd.
+
 ### Mol population history
 
 `scripts/provision_mol_population_history.py` imports official Statbel

docs/DEPENDENCY_POLICY.md

@@ -12,6 +12,8 @@ GeoIntel deliberately uses technologies matching the GeoAI Engineer profile. Dep
 - GeoAlchemy2
 - psycopg
 - python-multipart
+- RDFLib for standards-compliant parsing of bounded official RDF/DCAT source
+  catalogues. It is pure Python and does not fetch provider distributions.
 
 ## Approved GIS/remote-sensing
 

docs/ENVIRONMENT_SPEC.md

@@ -29,6 +29,8 @@ GRB_WFS_URL=
 # Explicit read-only source-edition probes (no provider import).
 SOURCE_CATALOG_PROBE_ENABLED=true
 SOURCE_CATALOG_GRB_WFS_URL=https://geo.api.vlaanderen.be/GRB/wfs
+SOURCE_CATALOG_STATBEL_DCAT_URL=https://doc.statbel.be/publications/DCAT/DCAT_opendata_datasets.ttl
+SOURCE_CATALOG_STATBEL_MAX_RESPONSE_MB=5
 SOURCE_CATALOG_ALZ_RELEASE_URL=https://landbouwcijfers.vlaanderen.be/open-geodata-landbouwgebruikspercelen
 SOURCE_CATALOG_PROBE_TIMEOUT_SECONDS=10
 SOURCE_CATALOG_PROBE_MAX_RESPONSE_MB=2
@@ -36,6 +38,11 @@ SOURCE_CATALOG_PROBE_CACHE_TTL_SECONDS=900
 OSM_OVERPASS_URL=https://overpass-api.de/api/interpreter
 ```
 
+The Statbel limit is separate because the official Turtle catalog is larger
+than the bounded OGC/HTML metadata responses. The probe parses only release
+metadata and validates distribution identities; it never follows population
+ZIP or XLSX links.
+
 ### Frontend
 
 ```env

docs/TODO.md

@@ -42,6 +42,7 @@
 - [x] Add explicit bounded GRB/orthophoto catalogue release probes using official capabilities and ISO metadata; keep every acquisition separate and operator-controlled.
 - [x] Add a governed regional GRB plan -> stage -> checksum-confirmed apply workflow that preserves every previous snapshot.
 - [x] Add a fail-closed ALZ publication probe that distinguishes provisional v1/v2 snapshots from the definitive v3 historical edition and never downloads an archive.
+- [x] Add a fail-closed Statbel DCAT publication probe that distinguishes population year, sector-geometry year and the 2025 REDEGEO transition without downloading distributions.
 - [ ] Extend catalogue probes only to additional sources that publish a stable official edition contract; do not add background polling or infer releases from HTTP dates alone.
 
 ## Governed source expansion backlog