Preserve calibration portfolio model provenance

docs/CODEX_EXECUTION_LOG.md

@@ -1,3 +1,57 @@
+## Sprint 141 Expanded positive-AOI matrix and portfolio metadata hardening (2026-07-08)
+
+Changed:
+- Ran a fresh Tower multi-sample quality matrix for additional positive AOIs `balen`, `herentals` and `westerlo` using:
+  - `geointel-building-yolov8n-expanded160e50-pt`
+  - `geointel-building-yolov8n-hardneg160r8e40-pt`
+  - tile size `640`, overlap `64`, thresholds `0.15` and `0.05`.
+- Assembled a broader positive-AOI evidence portfolio across 7 AOIs:
+  - Geel, Mol, Turnhout and Retie from `expanded160e50-live`.
+  - Balen, Herentals and Westerlo from the fresh `balen-herentals-westerlo-live-20260708` run.
+- Hardened `scripts/export_detection_calibration_evidence.sh` so evidence bundles preserve calibration provenance fields in run summaries and GeoJSON properties:
+  - `model_asset_id`
+  - `model_request`
+  - `tile_size`
+  - `tile_overlap`
+- Extended `backend/tests/test_sprint139_multi_aoi_calibration_evidence_portfolio.py` to assert portfolio best-run model/tile provenance is retained.
+
+Tested:
+- Red step: `python -m pytest backend\tests\test_sprint139_multi_aoi_calibration_evidence_portfolio.py -q` failed with `KeyError: 'model_asset_id'` while bundle summaries dropped model provenance.
+- `python -m pytest backend\tests\test_sprint139_multi_aoi_calibration_evidence_portfolio.py -q` (`1 passed`)
+- `python -m pytest backend\tests\test_sprint139_multi_aoi_calibration_evidence_portfolio.py backend\tests\test_sprint138_calibration_evidence_bundle_smoke.py backend\tests\test_sprint137_browser_calibration_summary_evidence_script.py backend\tests\test_sprint125_detection_calibration_evidence_bundle.py -q` (`4 passed`)
+- `bash -n scripts/export_detection_calibration_evidence.sh`
+- `bash -n scripts/assemble_detection_calibration_evidence_portfolio.sh`
+- `python -m compileall backend/app`
+- `bash scripts/run_readiness_check.sh` (`418 passed`; frontend typecheck/build passed; Alembic head `202606120900`; shell syntax gates passed)
+- Tower fresh matrix completed for Balen, Herentals and Westerlo.
+- Tower positive-AOI portfolio assembly completed for 7 AOIs.
+- Tower runtime remained healthy on `0.0.0.0:1202->80/tcp`.
+
+Evidence:
+- Fresh Balen/Herentals/Westerlo output: `/mnt/user/appdata/geointel/artifacts/detection-quality-matrix/multi-sample/balen-herentals-westerlo-live-20260708/multi_sample_quality_summary.json`.
+- Expanded 7-AOI portfolio output: `/mnt/user/appdata/geointel/artifacts/detection-calibration-portfolio/positive-aoi-expanded-20260708/output/calibration_evidence_portfolio.json`.
+- Expanded positive-AOI portfolio sample count: `7`.
+- Expanded positive-AOI evidence features: `12438`.
+- Expanded positive-AOI role counts: `false_negative=9200`, `false_positive=2270`, `match_candidate=484`, `match_reference=484`.
+- Best fresh positive-AOI result: Westerlo with `geointel-building-yolov8n-expanded160e50-pt`, threshold `0.05`, F1/score `0.3659305993690852`, precision `0.38666666666666666`, recall `0.3473053892215569`.
+- Fresh Balen best: expanded160e50 threshold `0.05`, F1/score `0.16091954022988506`, precision `0.16333333333333333`, recall `0.15857605177993528`.
+- Fresh Herentals best: expanded160e50 threshold `0.05`, F1/score `0.14093264248704665`, precision `0.22666666666666666`, recall `0.10225563909774436`.
+- Hard-negative context from existing matrices:
+  - expanded160e50 at `0.05`: Kasterlee-bos `76`, Lommel-heide `10`, Postel-bos `1` detections.
+  - hardneg160r8e40 at `0.05`: Kasterlee-bos `25`, Lommel-heide `0`, Postel-bos `0` detections.
+
+Open:
+- expanded160e50 is stronger on positive AOIs, especially Westerlo, but still produces many false positives and misses many references.
+- hardneg160r8e40 is cleaner on hard-negative AOIs but materially weaker on the fresh positive AOIs.
+- No current candidate should be promoted blindly as V1 default without a combined positive/hard-negative decision rule.
+
+Limitations:
+- This pass ran additional live inference/QA workflows and produced operator artifacts, but did not change backend APIs, migrations, frontend runtime behavior, model weights, provider fetching or Docker runtime configuration.
+- The 7-AOI portfolio initially generated before the metadata fix lacked model/tile provenance in `best_run_by_score`; it should be regenerated after Tower pulls this commit.
+
+Next recommended pass:
+- Add a model promotion decision report that combines positive-AOI F1/recall and hard-negative false-positive pressure into one explicit accept/reject table per model and threshold.
+
 ## Sprint 140 Live multi-AOI calibration portfolio run (2026-07-08)
 
 Changed:

docs/TODO.md

@@ -427,5 +427,7 @@ This file now starts with the current implementation status. Older preparation/b
 - [x] Add a local browser-summary QA evidence bundle smoke using mocked canonical evidence responses.
 - [x] Add a multi-AOI calibration evidence portfolio convention for model-review handoff.
 - [x] Run the first live multi-AOI calibration evidence portfolio on Tower for Geel, Mol and Turnhout.
+- [x] Run fresh positive-AOI matrix coverage for Balen, Herentals and Westerlo.
+- [x] Preserve model/tile provenance in calibration evidence bundle summaries.
 - [ ] Add more AOIs after the tile-level baseline so the next local model attempt is not limited to Geel/Mol/Turnhout.
 - [ ] Add negative/background AOIs so the next tile dataset is not all positive tiles.