calibrate a confidence threshold from one inference pass

Threshold calibration ran the model over every tile once per threshold — three
GPU passes to compare 0.50, 0.25 and 0.15 on a hundred-tile raster. The answer
is already in a single run at the lowest value: detections above a higher cut
are a subset of it, and duplicate suppression walks candidates in descending
confidence, so a lower-confidence box can never displace a higher-confidence
one. The kept set above any cut is identical whichever threshold the run used,
which is what makes one pass sufficient rather than merely cheaper.

QA now takes calibration_thresholds and reads each operating point off the same
precision/recall walk it already performs, marking the F1-optimal cut. The lab
runs inference once and fills its table from the sweep.

The contract test asserted the per-threshold loop by name, pinning the waste it
was meant to describe. It now states what calibration owes an operator: a row
per requested threshold, from one run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

backend/app/services/detection_service.py

@@ -377,6 +377,7 @@ class DetectionService:
         iou_threshold: float = 0.5,
         class_name: str | None = None,
         min_confidence: float | None = None,
+        calibration_thresholds: list[float] | None = None,
     ) -> dict[str, Any]:
         run = db.get(AnalysisRun, analysis_run_id)
         if not run or run.analysis_type != "detection":
@@ -563,6 +564,15 @@ class DetectionService:
             reference_geometries,
             iou_threshold=iou_threshold,
         )
+        # Every requested confidence cut, answered from that one matching pass.
+        # Re-running inference per threshold spends N GPU passes to reproduce
+        # numbers already present here: suppression walks candidates in
+        # descending confidence, so the kept set above a cut does not depend on
+        # the threshold the run itself used.
+        calibration_sweep = DetectionMetricsService.calibration_sweep(
+            precision_recall_curve,
+            thresholds=list(calibration_thresholds or []),
+        )
         mean_iou = None if not evidence.match_iou_values else sum(evidence.match_iou_values) / len(evidence.match_iou_values)
         precision = evidence.matches / (evidence.matches + evidence.false_positives) if evidence.matches + evidence.false_positives > 0 else None
         recall = evidence.matches / (evidence.matches + evidence.false_negatives) if evidence.matches + evidence.false_negatives > 0 else None
@@ -598,6 +608,7 @@ class DetectionService:
                 "temporal_compatibility": temporal_compatibility,
                 "box_to_footprint_diagnostics": box_to_footprint_diagnostics,
                 "precision_recall_curve": precision_recall_curve,
+                "calibration_sweep": calibration_sweep,
                 "match_evidence": evidence.match_evidence,
                 "false_positive_evidence": evidence.false_positive_evidence,
                 "false_negative_evidence": evidence.false_negative_evidence,
@@ -647,6 +658,7 @@ class DetectionService:
             "temporal_compatibility": temporal_compatibility,
             "box_to_footprint_diagnostics": box_to_footprint_diagnostics,
             "precision_recall_curve": precision_recall_curve,
+            "calibration_sweep": calibration_sweep,
             "match_evidence": evidence.match_evidence,
             "false_positive_evidence": evidence.false_positive_evidence,
             "false_negative_evidence": evidence.false_negative_evidence,